Will Swell registration of 14.7 million market in 2016?

Will Swell registration of 14.7 million market in 2016? -

If you follow the industry of health insurance, you know all eyes are on new health insurance markets and the inevitable growth of the individual health insurance market. And yet, as industry professionals to understand the impact of change on the individual market, we are all trying to understand - and predict - how the individual market will grow, and when.

This is a prediction to consider.

In an article healthinsurance.org recent, Charles Gaba believes the inscription on Government Procurement ( "Qualified health plan enrollment") will swell to 14.7 million in 2016, an increase of 25 percent from 2015.

I find the reasons for Gaba market workforce growth to be spot-on, so here is a brief summary of its analysis.

5 reasons market following enrollment growth

According Gaba, there are five main reasons, we will continue to see growth of market strength in 2016.

1. technical improvements and features.
2. in individual penalty shared responsibility for growth will not be covered.
3. decreased participants transitional regime / grandfathered.
4. Loss of sponsored insurance by the employer (ESI) coverage.

According Gaba, "the CBO seems to think this is the big one. They are betting that an additional 5 million people will be removed from their ESI coverage next year. I think the CBO believes that most of these people will be moved to the individual exchanges. "

5. Increased consumer awareness.

5 reasons not to hold our breath

According Gaba, there are also five reasons why growth may not be as rapid as we all think.

1. premiums will increase for many people.
2. high deductibles and co-pays will be a problem for others.
3. The penalty for not having coverage may not always be a large enough incentive.
4. There is no lower hanging fruit - which means a large number of uninsured people who were previously uninsurable now have coverage. The uninsured are remaining more difficult to reach or induce
5. Competition from other forms of coverage

Prediction - .. An increase of 25 percent in 2016

In the mutuality. Article org, provides Gaba 14.7 million uninsured enroll or renew during the period 2016 open enrollment -. an increase of 25 percent compared to 2015 (see its assumptions and follow his math here)

What is your prediction for open enrollment application period this year?

do you think that the entry in the market plans will continue to grow?

Let us know in the comments below.

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